The German Weather Service (DWD) has published its latest seasonal climate outlook for the period March to July 2026 (issued 16 February 2026). Seasonal forecasts do not predict day-to-day weather conditions; instead, they indicate climate tendencies over several months compared to a historical reference period (1991–2020).
For Germany, the current model simulations suggest the following:
- Spring (March–May): High probability (88%) of normal to warmer-than-average conditions. However, forecast skill for this period is assessed as low.
- Late spring (April–June): Moderate tendency (69%) towards warmer conditions.
- Early summer (May–July): Moderate tendency (67%) towards warmer conditions, with medium forecast skill.
The DWD emphasizes that seasonal climate forecasts are inherently uncertain, and uncertainty increases with longer lead times. Where forecast skill is low, the DWD recommends referring to the observed climatological state, in which colder, normal and warmer conditions are considered equally likely.
The outlook is broadly supported by multi-model forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which also indicate slight to moderate tendencies towards warmer conditions in spring and early summer 2026.
Large-scale climate drivers are taken into account in the assessment, including developments in the tropical Pacific (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies in the Mediterranean region, and potential changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Current projections suggest neutral ENSO conditions in spring, with a possible transition towards El Niño conditions by early summer.
Regarding soil moisture, the DWD forecasts a strong tendency towards drier-than-average conditions in parts of Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt through July 2026. Precipitation forecasts for Germany as a whole remain less conclusive, with no clear signal emerging from the models.
The DWD’s seasonal outlook is based on ensemble modelling, which accounts for uncertainties in initial conditions and applies statistical downscaling to achieve higher spatial resolution for Germany. The assessment is complemented by international model results and analysis of large-scale climate patterns.
The complete outlook, including graphics and models can be found here.
(Image source: Pixbay)